The electoral college consists of 538 electors and the majority of ... individual states – including Florida, where Mr Bush’s brother Jeb was Governor – and so was the victor.

Introducing 538's forecast for the 2024 U.S. Senate elections. As a ridiculously close election enters its final stretch, the balance of power in the U.S. looks totally up for grabs. In 538’s ...

Here's everything that goes into this year's model. On Wednesday, 538 released its 2024 election forecast for the U.S. Senate. The model powering this forecast combines our polling averages for ...

Bush defeated Democrat Al Gore. How accurate have election odds or polls been in past presidential elections? The betting favorite has only lost twice since 1866, according to the Conversation ...

The see-saw battle has flipped once again. Former President Donald Trump has once again become the favorite to win the presidential election in November, sailing past Vice President Kamala Harris ...

The closest election of the century keeps getting closer. Two weeks ago, 538's forecast of the presidential election gave Vice President Kamala Harris just a 58-in-100 chance of defeating former ...

If you go by betting odds, Trump is going to get a second opportunity to Make America Great Again. According to realclearpolling, Republican candidate Trump has a 59 percent chance of winning the ...

To win, a party’s ticket must win the most votes in enough states to attain an outright majority of electoral votes — at least 270 votes out of a total of 538 (sound familiar?). But lurking in ...

The 538 team plays another round of "Good or Bad Use of Polling” to discuss how an experimental polling company, Aaru, uses AI chatbots to obtain information about ...