Introducing 538's forecast for the 2024 U.S. Senate elections. As a ridiculously close election enters its final stretch, the balance of power in the U.S. looks totally up for grabs. In 538’s ...

Here's everything that goes into this year's model. On Wednesday, 538 released its 2024 election forecast for the U.S. Senate. The model powering this forecast combines our polling averages for ...

To win, a party’s ticket must win the most votes in enough states to attain an outright majority of electoral votes — at least 270 votes out of a total of 538 (sound familiar?). But lurking in ...

The 538 team plays another round of "Good or Bad Use of Polling” to discuss how an experimental polling company, Aaru, uses AI chatbots to obtain information about ...

Policies to boost EVs are still popular, but losing support. On the campaign trail this election cycle, former President Donald Trump has indulged in a singular rant about electric boats and ...

Michael Brown’s fatal shooting by police a decade ago set off more than a week of protests by thousands of people in Ferguson ...

On the campaign trail this election cycle, former President Donald Trump has indulged in a singular rant about electric boats and sharks. The story goes that a boat manufacturer complained to him ...

Polling analyst Nate Silver said on Sunday the most frequent combination involving the seven swings states is a sweep for Harris.

According to forecasts from 538, Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are in a neck-and-neck battle for the presidency, while control of the U.S. House of Representatives ...

The position of the flag indicates whether the organization is partisan. Organizations are considered partisan if they operate on behalf of a candidate, party, campaign committee, PAC, super PAC, ...

The position of the flag indicates whether the organization is partisan. Organizations are considered partisan if they operate on behalf of a candidate, party, campaign committee, PAC, super PAC, ...